{"id":1827,"date":"2021-10-18T04:01:29","date_gmt":"2021-10-18T04:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/CBMibGh0dHBzOi8vbnljLnN0cmVldHNibG9nLm9yZy8yMDIxLzEwLzE4L3JlcG9ydC04NTAwMC1tb3JlLWRhbW4tY2Fycy13aWxsLWVudGVyLW1hbmhhdHRhbnMtY29yZS1kYWlseS1pbi0yMDIzL9IBAA"},"modified":"2021-10-18T04:01:29","modified_gmt":"2021-10-18T04:01:29","slug":"report-85000-more-damn-cars-will-enter-manhattans-core-daily-in-2023-streetsblog-new-york","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thcinct.com\/?p=1827","title":{"rendered":"Report: 85000 More Damn Cars will Enter Manhattan’s Core Daily in 2023 – Streetsblog New York"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is the dawning of the age of Carpocalypse.<\/p>\n

A new look at post-pandemic travel patterns<\/a> predicts that fewer people will travel into Midtown and Lower Manhattan in the near-future, but more of them will choose to get there by driving, turning a currently miserable morass of traffic into something even more miserable \u2014 the very scenario that many experts warned the mayor about<\/a> last year, but were ignored<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sam Schwartz Engineering and Clarion Research surveyed Connecticut, New Jersey and New York residents on their travel habits into Manhattan south of 60th Street and ask them how they would change after the pandemic. The bad news? The answers suggest that almost 90,000 extra private cars are going to jam the streets of the city\u2019s central living district in 2023. More bad news? The share of public transportation trips into the area is also going to drop.<\/p>\n

\u201cDriving into Manhattan, which plateaued for many years and even declined in the 2010s, is expected to rise by almost 90,000 vehicles per day \u2014 leading to more congestion, pollution, and added tension on our streets,\u201d the report states. \u201cThis should be addressed before the streets become overwhelmed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a breakdown of the core problem: On a typical spring weekday before the pandemic, roughly 23 percent of trips into Manhattan south of 60th Street were done with private vehicles. During the pandemic, that number rose to 35 percent. Now, by 2023, that share will fall to 28 percent, according to the survey, but that seemingly small 5-percent increase from pre-pandemic numbers is a disaster in the making.<\/p>\n

Such a shift, the report authors say, \u201cwould translate to an increase of as many as 85,000 vehicles entering the CBD daily (assuming 1.25 people per vehicle), likely causing a significant increase in congestion in an area where traffic speeds already normally hover around 7 mph, according to the 2019 Mobility Report by the New York City Department of Transportation.\u201d<\/p>\n

In terms of raw numbers, the travel pattern shift would mean the total number of cars entering the CBD would rise from 911,000 per day to 1,017,000 per day. Meanwhile, the spine of the region\u2019s transportation system \u2014 commuter rail, buses and the subway \u2014 will continue its decline in ridership from before the pandemic. Yes, more people will walk, take ferries or bike, but not enough to make much of a difference in the coming carmageddon, as the chart below shows:<\/p>\n

\"This<\/a>
This could be our future. Graphic: Sam Schwartz Engineering<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yes, there is going to be a roughly 320,000-person decrease in the number of people who go into Manhattan\u2019s core by 2023 \u2014 from 3.9 million people daily to 3.58 million people in 2023, but the 500,000-plus drop in overall transit trips will mostly be made up by drivers because of decreases in transit use.<\/p>\n

The subway had an outright majority of trips into the CBD in 2019, with 56 percent of the total share, but the survey suggests it will drop to 48 percent by 2023. Additionally, the total share of public transportation trips into the CBD is predicted to fall from 73 percent to 65 percent.<\/p>\n

About one-third of survey respondents said that they were expecting to use public transit less often when traveling into the CBD. Working from home more often was the main reason cited for less public transit usage in that cohort, with 36 percent strongly agreeing with the statement, \u201cI expect to be working from home more.\u201d The other two reasons though, show that elected officials and the MTA are going to have to put in some work to change hearts and minds:<\/p>\n