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WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 The massive clean energy incentives in the U.S. law signed Tuesday by President Joe Biden should reduce future global warming “not by much, but not by much,” according to a climate scientist who conduct an independent analysis of the package.<\/p>\n
Even with nearly $375 billion in tax credits and other financial incentives for renewable energy in law, the U.S. still isn’t doing its part to help the world stay within a few tenths of degree of warming, a new analysis of says Climate Action Tracker.<\/a> The group of scientists examines and evaluates each country’s climate goals and actions. He still calls US action “inadequate” but has welcomed some progress.<\/p>\n “This is the biggest thing that’s happened to the United States in terms of climate policy,” said Bill Hare, the director of Australia-based Climate Analytics, which publishes the tracking. “When you think back over the past few decades, you know, without wanting to be rude, there’s been a lot of talk, but not a lot of action.”<\/p>\n This is action, he said. Not as much as Europe, and Americans still belch twice as much heat-trapping gases per person as Europeans, Hare said. The United States has also put more heat-trapping gas into the air over time than any other nation.<\/p>\n Before the law, Climate Action Tracker calculated that if all other nations made efforts similar to those of the US, it would lead to a world with catastrophic warming: 5.4 to 7.2 degrees (3 to 4 degrees Celsius) per about pre-industrial times. Now, in the best-case scenario, which Hare said is reasonable and likely, U.S. actions, if replicated, will lead to just 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) of warming. If things don’t work out as optimistically as Hare thinks, it would be 5.4 degrees (3 degrees Celsius) of warming, according to the analysis.<\/p>\n Even the best-case scenario falls short of the internationally agreed global goal of limiting warming to 2.7 degrees of warming (1.5 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times. And the world has already warmed 2 degrees (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the mid-19th century.<\/p>\n Other nations “that we know have held back on coming forward with more ambitious policies and goals” are now more likely to act with a “significant global spillover effect,” Hare said. He said officials in Chile and a few Southeast Asian countries, which he would not name, told him this summer that they were waiting for U.S. action first.<\/p>\n And China “won’t say that out loud, but I think they will see the U.S. move as something they need to match,” Hare said.<\/p>\n Climate Action Tracker scientists calculated that without any new climate policies, US carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 will fall 26% to 42% below 2005 levels, which is still below of the country’s goal of cutting emissions in half. Analysts at the Rhodium Group think tank calculated pollution cuts of 31% to 44% under the new law. <\/p>\n Other analysts and scientists said the Climate Action Tracker numbers make sense. <\/p>\n “The United States’ contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are enormous,” said Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi. “So reducing that will definitely have a global impact.”<\/p>\n Samantha Gross, director of climate and energy at the Brookings Institution, called the new law a down payment on US emissions reductions.<\/p>\n “Now that this is done, the US can celebrate a little bit, then focus on implementation and what needs to happen next,” Gross said.<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/climate-and-environment<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears<\/a><\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Associated Press climate and environmental coverage is supported by several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here<\/a>. The AP is solely responsible for all content.<\/p>\n