CSAIL 2015-C2 Commercial Mortgage Trust — Moody’s affirms four and downgrades one class of CSAIL 2015-C2 – Yahoo Finance

Rating Action: Moody’s affirms four and downgrades one class of CSAIL 2015-C2Global Credit Research – 24 Mar 2022Approximately $930 million of structured securities affectedNew York, March 24, 2022 — Moody’s Investors Service, (“Moody’s”) has affirmed the ratings on four classes and downgraded the rating on one class in CSAIL 2015-C2 Commercial Mortgage Trust, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2015-C2 (“CSAIL 2015-C2”):Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 3, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. A-4, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 3, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. A-SB, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 3, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. A-S, Downgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on May 3, 2019 Affirmed Aa2 (sf)Cl. X-A*, Affirmed Aa1 (sf); previously on May 3, 2019 Affirmed Aa1 (sf)* Reflects Interest Only ClassesRATINGS RATIONALEThe ratings on three P&I classes were affirmed because of the significant credit support and because the transaction’s key metrics, including Moody’s loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Moody’s stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the transaction’s Herfindahl Index (Herf), are within acceptable ranges.The rating on one P&I class, Cl. A-S, was downgraded due to the decline in pool performance and higher loss expectations as a result of pool’s exposure to specially serviced and troubled loans. Specially serviced loans currently represent nearly 10% of the pool and Moody’s has identified an additional ten troubled loans, representing 15% of the pool, that remain current but have exhibited recent declines in performance. Furthermore, the pool contains three regional malls, representing approximately 12% of the pool, that may face increased refinancing risk at their maturity dates in late 2024 and early 2025.The rating on the IO class was affirmed based on the credit quality of the referenced classes.Moody’s rating action reflects a base expected loss of 6.5% of the current pooled balance, compared to 1.3% at Moody’s last review. Moody’s base expected loss plus realized losses is now 7.4% of the original pooled balance, compared to 5.7% at the last review. Moody’s provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS:The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody’s forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral’s credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody’s had previously expected.Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool’s share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTIONThe principal methodology used in rating all classes except the interest-only class was “US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securitizations Methodology” published in November 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1258254. The methodologies used in rating the interest-only class were “US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securitizations Methodology” published in November 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1258254 and “Moody’s Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities” published in February 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1111179. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.DEAL PERFORMANCEAs of the March 17th distribution date, the transaction’s aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 11% to $1.23 billion from $1.38 billion at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by 109 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 8% of the pool, with the top ten loans (excluding defeasance) constituting 37% of the pool. Eighteen loans, constituting 10% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by US government securities.Moody’s uses a variation of Herf to measure the diversity of loan sizes, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including the risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 34, compared to 40 at Moody’s last review.Twenty-four loans, constituting 24% of the pool, are on the master servicer’s watchlist. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody’s ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance.One loan has been liquidated from the pool, resulting in a realized loss of $2.6 million (for a loss severity of 55%). Nine loans, constituting 10% of the pool, are currently in special servicing. The largest specially serviced loan is The Depot loan ($27.9 million — 2.3% of the pool), which is secured by a 624-bed student housing property located in Akron, Ohio. The property was built in 2014 and is located within 0.25 miles of the University of Akron Campus. The loan transferred to special servicing in July 2016 due to imminent monetary default as a result of declining revenues and increased expenses. After a foreclosure sale in February 2020, the title was transferred to the trust in June 2020. The property’s occupancy fluctuated significantly during the pandemic and was 57% at year-end 2020, compared to 82% as of September 2021 and 85% at year-end 2017. Furthermore, the University of Akron has also faced declining enrollment numbers over the past decade. An updated appraisal was reported in January 2022 that represented a 62% decline from its value at securitization and as of the March 2022 remittance statement the servicer has recognized a $18.2 million appraisal reduction on this loan.The second largest specially serviced loan is the California Corporate Center loan ($22.8 million — 1.9% of the pool), which is secured by two Class-A buildings in the southwest submarket of Bakersfield, California. The loan was transferred at the borrower’s request due to imminent monetary default in January 2022. The special servicer recently reviewed and approved a major lease request and is currently awaiting the borrower’s request for additional relief. The property was 84% leased as of June 2021, compared to 82% as of December 2020 and 88% as of December 2019. The loan remains current and its most recently reported NOI DSCR was 1.69X in June 2021.The third largest specially serviced loan is the Bayshore Mall loan ($21.2 million — 1.7% of the pool), which represents a pari passu portion of $42.8 million mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 515,912 Square feet (SF) regional mall located in Eureka, California. The property is currently anchored by Wal-Mart and Kohl’s (non-collateral). The loan transferred to special servicing in October 2020 due to payment default and the low rent collection rate. As of September 2021 the property was 67.3% occupied and the in-line space is 61.5%. The property had generally experienced increased net operating income (NOI) since securitization, however, the property’s occupancy has declined since 2020. The loan is last paid through December 2021 and servicer commentary indicates the servicer is having ongoing discussions with the borrower.The remaining six specially serviced loans are secured by a mix of property types. Moody’s estimates an aggregate $38.1 million loss for the specially serviced loans (32% expected loss on average).Moody’s has also assumed a high default probability for 10 poorly performing loans, constituting 15% of the pool, and has estimated an aggregate loss of $41.8 million (a 22% expected loss on average) from these troubled loans. The largest troubled loan is the Soho-Tribeca Grand Hotel Portfolio ($65.0 million — 5.3% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu portion of an aggregate $225.0 million senior mortgage loan. There is also a $25 million B note that is held outside of the trust. The loan is secured by two luxury boutique hotels, the Soho Grand Hotel and The Roxy Hotel (formerly the Tribeca Grand Hotel), with a combined 554 rooms, located in the Soho and Tribeca neighborhoods of New York City. Both hotels are full service. The hotels were temporarily shut down in March 2020 but have since reopened. The property’s cash flow was insufficient to cover it throughout 2020. The property’s revenue began to recover in 2021, however, the NCF DSCR through September 2021 was below 1.00X. The loan has remained current on its debt service payments, however, due to the low revenue and DSCR Moody’s identified this as a troubled loan.The second largest troubled loan is the Westfield Trumbull loan ($34.0 million — 2.8% of the pool), which represents a pari passu portion of a $152 million mortgage loan. The loan collateral is a 667,607 SF component of a 1,130,472 SF super-regional mall located in Trumbull, Connecticut, approximately 10 miles north of the Bridgeport CBD. At securitization, the mall contains four anchors, being Macy’s, Target, J.C. Penney and Lord & Taylor. Only Macy’s is owned by the sponsor and contributed as collateral for the loan. Lord & Taylor closed their store at the property in February 2021. Property performance has declined since 2018 due to declining revenues and the property’s reported NOI in 2020 and 2019 saw a decrease of 33% and 31%, respectively, as compared to the reported NOI in 2017. While the loan has remained current with an in-place NOI DSCR of 1.47X in September 2021, due to the continued decline in NOI the loan may face increased refinance risk at its maturity date in March 2025.The remaining troubled loans are secured by a mix of retail, office and hotel properties that have expected declines in performance in recent years.The credit risk of loans is determined primarily by two factors: 1) Moody’s assessment of the probability of default, which is largely driven by each loan’s DSCR, and 2) Moody’s assessment of the severity of loss upon a default, which is largely driven by each loan’s loan-to-value ratio, referred to as the Moody’s LTV or MLTV. As described in the CMBS methodology used to rate this transaction, we make various adjustments to the MLTV. We adjust the MLTV for each loan using a value that reflects capitalization (cap) rates that are between our sustainable cap rates and market cap rates. We also use an adjusted loan balance that reflects each loan’s amortization profile. The MLTV reported in this publication reflects the MLTV before the adjustments described in the methodology.Moody’s received full year 2020 operating results for 99% of the pool, and full or partial year 2021 operating results for 86% of the pool (excluding specially serviced and defeased loans). Moody’s weighted average conduit LTV is 111%, compared to 115% at Moody’s last review. Moody’s conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody’s net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 18% to the most recently available NOI. Moody’s value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.8%.Moody’s actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.62X and 0.97X, respectively, compared to 1.63X and 0.94X at the last review. Moody’s actual DSCR is based on Moody’s NCF and the loan’s actual debt service. Moody’s stressed DSCR is based on Moody’s NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.The top three conduit loans represent 19% of the pool balance. The largest conduit loan is the Westfield Wheaton Loan ($95.0 million — 7.8% of the pool), which represents a pari passu portion of a $234.6 million senior mortgage. The loan is secured by a regional mall located in Wheaton, Maryland approximately 10 miles north of the Washington D.C. central business district. The property consists of a two-level enclosed mall with four anchor tenants: Target, Macy’s, Costco, and JC Penney. While performance had generally improved from securitization through 2019, the property’s revenue and NOI deteriorated in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. The property’s revenue and NOI declined further in 2021 and the 2021 NOI was 17% lower than in 2015. As of December 2021, the property was 97% leased, unchanged from September 2018, and compared to 96% in September 2017, and 95% in September 2016. The loan is interest-only and has a maturity date in March 2025. Moody’s LTV and stressed DSCR are 127% and 0.87X, respectively, compared to 105% and 0.95X at the last review.The second largest loan is the 9200 & 9220 Sunset Loan ($90.0 million — 7.3% of the pool), which represents a pari passu portion of a $210.0 million senior mortgage. The loan is secured by two Class A office buildings totaling 317,000 SF and located along Sunset Boulevard in West Hollywood, California. The largest tenant is S&F Management Company (8.3% of net rentable area; lease expiration in March 2027). As of September 2021, the property was 90% leased, compared to 89% in December 2020, and 93% in December 2019. The loan is interest-only and has a maturity date in January 2025. Moody’s LTV and stressed DSCR are 113% and 0.83X, respectively, the same as at the last review.The third largest loan is the Residence Inn Beverly Hills Loan ($42.1 million — 3.4% of the pool), which is secured by the borrower’s leasehold interest in a 186-room, extended-stay hotel located at the intersection of South Beverly Drive and Pico Boulevard in Beverly Hills. The property operates subject to ground lease for a period of 99 years with fixed payments of $1.3 million per annum for the first twelve years. While property performance had been impacted by the pandemic, the loan remained current and through the trailing twelve-month period ending September 2021 the NOI DSCR was 1.86X compared to 2.44X in year-end 2019. The property has benefited from its location in the Beverly Hills neighborhood of the greater Los Angeles MSA and its large share of demand from leisure segment. The property has outperformed its competitive set during the pandemic with a RevPAR Index of 133.5% in 2021 and 150.1% in 2020. The loan has amortized 12% since securitization and Moody’s LTV and stressed DSCR are 113% and 1.09X, respectively, compared to 115% and 1.07X at the last review.REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody’s key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody’s Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody’s estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.Moody’s did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody’s rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider’s credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody’s Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.Moody’s general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody’s affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody’s Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody’s office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody’s affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody’s Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody’s office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody’s legal entity that has issued the rating.Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Kevin Li Asst Vice President – Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Matthew Halpern VP – Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Releasing Office: Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 © 2022 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. 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